Detailed action plan for the triennium 2016-2019
The first two phases of the iCCB Programme (2007 – 2015) successfully developed a scientific community working on trait-based approaches within the context of integrated Climate Change Biology (iCCB). New methodologies and research frameworks were developed and an important research agenda pushed to the forefront of conversation palaeontology. The final phase of the iCCB Programme under IUBS will bring to fruition some of the most impactful products, both in the short and long term, from this community, including a high impact perspectives paper on “Managing for a Changing Planet” and a book on methodologies associated with the ecometric approach. We plan to work toward securing institutional support for the iCCB mission in continuing to advance the research in trait-based approaches to conservation, as well as work towards planning a larger global change initiative under IUBS.
Scientific goals of the iCCB for next three years
Our goal is to target the larger iCCB workshops for the training workshop and for future long-term transition of the program. In 2016 we will organise a training workshop for ecometric methods that is targeted for students and early career scientists. In 2017 and 2018 the larger workshops will concentrate on the future of a global change initiative sponsored by IUBS and on how to tranform the iCCB to a new program.
Each year we will also sponsor one or two smaller iCCB working group meetings that will facilitate core iCCB research to bring the ongoing research to conclusion. We will also look for other financial support to have up to three small workshops per year (two sponsored by iCCB, one with external funding). The small working groups in the iCCB past have been remarkably effective and so we plan to continue that model.
The ongoing research can be roughly categorized under four different themes
Modeling
The underlying environmental mechanisms contributing to ecometric patterns is the focus of this theme. Specifically, we model terrestrial vertebrate communities, through their feeding ecology, body size, and locomotory traits, in the context of their geographic movement, community assembly, and evolution under changing climates. Understanding which underlying environmental mechanisms contribute to the distribution of traits will allow us to better apply and interpret ecometric patterns in the fossil record, and will allow us to better project patterns under future climate scenarios. In addition, modelling ecometric traits is important to understand how to extrapolate empirical data collected at local and regional scales to patterns that emerge at continental and global scales. The Ecometrics Modelling Group has completed a publication introducing the new bottom-up modelling framework (Polly et al. 2015 in press). The next step is to move the modelling framework to a context of environmental change through time, which is not a trivial task. The Ecometrics Modelling Group plans to meet at least three times during the next triennium to move forward this scientific goal. In addition to one independent meeting, we will overlap our cursory meetings with a society conference (likely Society of Vertebrate Paleontology) that we regularly attend to minimize costs associated with the extra Ecometrics Modelling Group meetings.
Ecometric patterns
We will focus on establishing the theoretical basis for ecometric relationships and their significance in understanding trait distributions by combining mechanistic studies of trait function, such as biomechanical models of tooth wear and limb strength and physiological models of metabolic tolerances in modern vertebrates, with correlative studies based on multivariate regression of functional trait and environmental variables, akin to species distribution modeling. This approach allows us to estimate both function and efficacy traits and their resultant potential for inferring btoh biotic responses to future climate change and paleoenvironments from fossil trait records.
Past (and present) Biodiversity
Modeling future biodiversity losses and biosphere-climate feedbacks is inherently difficult because of the complex, nonlinear interactions with competing effects that result from different responses to environmental changes. The fossil record is arguably the best archive on the generation and long-term maintenance of biodiversity under changing environmental conditions. We will use datasets of terrestrial fossil data, encompassing mammal data of the last 65 million years (Ma), that are combined with functional trait data and estimates of spatially resolved terrestrial climate. The goal is to investigate whether mammalian biodiversity is correlated to climate, productivity or habitat heterogeneity through time, and examine how mammalian functional traits are related to diversity through time.
Paleo-occupancy modelling group
Species distribution models have been used frequently to model changes in species’ geographic distribution through time, resulting in a surface of the probability of occurrence given a model of species’ climate tolerances. This approach is useful for paleobiologists to estimate probability of occurrence of a species at a fossil locality, which will contribute to a better understanding of the community composition and probable ecometric distribution of traits. However, species distribution models are sensitive to inherent biases in occurrence data. We will develop a framework to incorporate occupancy models into the estimation of the probable ecometric distribution at a fossil locality by simultaneously estimating the probability of detection and the probability of occurrence of a species, given covariates related to detection (e.g., preservation, depositional environment, and species traits).
Strategy for iCCB conclusion and Phase III plan of action
We are planning to bring together the modern biologists (e.g. BCGC), paleo-minded scientists (iCCB and related organisations), and policymakers or their representatives (BiGCB – Hadley and Barnosky) in the visioning of a post-iCCB funded programme from IUBS. We are planning to have one visioning meetings and one practical planning meetings for the future of a global change initiative sponsored by IUBS with the context of the Future Earth initiative in mind. It will take time, effort, and networking to become affiliated with Future Earth, so we plan for this process to take several years, if the visioning and planning meetings of post IUBS funded iCCB programme move toward that direction. We would like to host these meetings in, for example, Norway to facilitate input from executive IUBS officials (Nils Chr. Stenseth) and in collaboration with the IUBS funded BCGC Programme.